Iraqi Oil Center Stage

I am hoping that this becomes one of those posts of mine that gets a lot of commentary. I'm never sure which one will. But I am curious to open up the discussion on this matter.

I have basically three stated positions and one unstated position. The first is that the reason we went to Iraq was not because of oil. There was no and could be no cost justification for the expense. The second was that the Iraqi insurgency is brutal because they are indeed fighting over oil. The third was that the Coalition of the Willing was short Russia and France because of a conflict over their oil rights which were granted by Saddam. The fourth which is unstated is that of course Iraq matters because of oil and when it comes to deposing dictators the effect on the world economy should be taken into consideration.

The indications that I hear, but such things will be clearer after the SoU Address, are that we are beginning to put pressure on Iran's access to oil markets. IE there's only a certain amount of political manipulation we are willing to put up with when it comes to oil supplies which is why OPEC oil ministers are not targeted for assassination by the CIA. They don't manipulate. But now would be a good time to update this conversation.

But what will be the oil situation in Iraq?