Drezner Flips, I Freeze

Drezner has flipped in a convincing way. It sounds as if he's got the good behind Friedman's arguments weighed soundly.

I've understood these arguments and never really denied them, but they've never been quite as clear as they are. Thus far, I have decided to reward Bush for his initiative and his efficiency, but not for his results. In remaining with Bush I am being partisan.

I don't believe that my own view of the geopolitical situation is complete and so any candidate who says more about it gets more of my support. I've given Kerry every opportunity to do so and he has not. I understand his philosophy, I simply can't get behind it. That said what Drezner points out about the Bush decision making process is very accurate. It is something I have noted time and time again. In August, I was going to abstain.

What stands out most in my mind is that the lesson of GWBush is that at no time should one vote for a president someone you think would make a nice president if things go the way you think they ought. Events always overtake the presidency and one ought to always hedge the bet, because omissions of skills at the presidential level always come back to bite somebody. More specifically, I don't want my vote going to somebody who is not some kind of Washington insider - the Executive Branch is too serious and complicated for that. And it is in Bush's mismanagement of that which I feel bears the greatest weight in my argument. Here is a man who has failed not only to win the popular vote, but to keep public opinion with him during wartime. How do you do that when Lee Greenwood is on the charts? How do you get your personality outshone by your VP, your political strategist and your house majority leader? Anyway, I don't want to beat up on the president, I think it's enough to say that I don't think he deserves another go 'round. He can't even answer questions about what oil is doing at $45/bbl and he's supposed to be an oilman.

Being a Republican, my vote was the president's to lose, and he's lost it. There's no way possible that Kerry can earn it. But there are two things a Democratic president can do for me.

1. Is put the Republicans in congress back on their toes and halt spending.
2. Undo Ashcroft's overzealousness by guaranteeing sunset provisions in the Patriot Act.

Kerry has done nothing to substantiate the two mulligans I gave him, which I would still value if he manages to pull an upset. Bush still has my vote, but not all of my confidence. Kerry has none of my confidence and several negatives to overcome, but I don't think he's a total loser. In either case I am truly burned out, and don't want to see either candidate, nor do I look to hear new things about the campaigns. I want this noise to be over, and I want to hear a different kind of reporting from Iraq.

Ironically, I don't believe I'll hear anything different about Iraq unless and until Kerry is elected - because everyone, including me, is stuck in the past regarding what Bush decided way back when.