The Next Heroes

Tigerhawk asks what we can expect of the 9/11 Generation.

So what will be the impact of the generation that has come of age during the last five years? More than 300,000 young Americans have served in Afghanistan and Iraq, and many of them will come home and eventually enter careers in government, journalism, business, academia and politics. There are many more Americans who did not fight in those wars, who know virtually nobody who has, and who know what they think they know from abstract media -- press accounts, books, photographs and fauxtographs, and blogs of the right and left. What effect will these two groups have when they become the leaders of our government, economy and culture? If you answer in the comments -- and I very much hope you do -- consider particularly the likely impact of this generation on American foreign policy. What will these returning veterans teach us about the Arab and Muslim world, and how will the cohort that stayed at home react to that instruction?   

I have just recently visited the Wikipedia page of Strauss & Howe after being called a (Neoconservative) Straussian. It was a happy accident in rediscovering these gents who wrote The Fourth Turning. It turns out that their prediction of the next generation will probably be correct.

• Nomads are ratty, tough, unwanted, diverse, adventurous, and cynical about institutions. They grow up as the underprotected children of an Awakening, come of age as the alienated young adults of an Unravelling, become the pragmatic, midlife leaders of a Crisis and age into tough, post-crisis elders during a High. Generation X and the Lost Generation are examples of Nomad generations.

• Heroes are conventional, powerful, and institutionally driven, with a profound trust in authority. They grow up as the increasingly protected children of an Unraveling, come of age as the Heroic, team-working youth of a Crisis, become energetic and hubristic mid-lifers during a High and become the powerful elders who are attacked in the next Awakening. The G.I. Generation that fought World War II is an example of a Hero generation.

According to their generational calendar, the next Heroic generation are those who were born between 1982 and 2003.

Millennial Saeculum
Boom	Prophet	1943-1960
13th	Nomad	1961-1981
Millennial	Hero	1982-2003

I've often spoken about the tendencies in suburbs like mine for children's activities to be over-poiliced. Almost every kid around attended a school with a DARE program. I'm on the cusp of GenX and identify with the Boomers too. But I recognize that Nomad pattern in my life, and there's no question that I am raising my kids rather much as the Heroic profile suggests. I've been skeptical about the application of this Sacular theory beyond the borders of the US, but that's not what matters. Here I think it's broadly apt.