The E Word

The E word is 'Empire'. I'm revisiting that question lightly.

Basically, my thinking has moved beyond the issue of Iraq. The key point is that the Axis of Evil had two countries right next to each other, and perhaps we can leave North Korea to China. But long term what is the point of engaging in the Middle East? Empire or Oil?

I have not completely come around to the argument that Islam is fundamentally and irrevocably anti-western, but I have to confess my inching to the serious question of whether or not they can sustain a pluralistic society engaged in diplomacy as we now know it. Sure there's the question of if the West is ultimately right or wrong, but in the conflict of nations, the winner ultimately gets to be right. The point is however, how long will Islamists leave well enough alone? And if they don't will they leave the oil alone? And if they don't how long will some coalition, or empire have to dominate them before the world economy shifts away from oil?

To my way of thinking we have inched up to the edge of a regional conflict precisely because Iran and Syria couldn't mind their own damned business. They want to get the Palestinians involved in their raisons d'etre and that means Israel and Lebanon. It's a regional war, period.

So do we step up or step off?

I say we'll dither for few years until it gets really bad. Perhaps we lose a landmark or maybe even a Murrah sized terrorist attack, before we go full Roman. Maybe we wait for Hezbollah to come across the Mexican border, or we wait until Israel goes ballistic. Then it's barcodes on the neck for everyone. In the meantime we'll just pretend that we don't want empire.

At E day, the real question is going to be when is a George P. Schultz or Colin Powell-like figure steps up and slaps us into shape, will he come from our politics or from our companies? Interesting thought.