Barnett pokes the Peak Oilers:
Some oil analysts employ this observation to extrapolate a global oil peak, declaring we've already passed the point of no return. The problem with this theory is that it discounts unconventional sources of oil, such as tar sands and oil shale, as well as non-oil sources for transportation energy (e.g, ethanol, biodiesel, coal liquefaction, hydrogen, fuel cells).
Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a highly respected industry authority, estimates that if unconventional sources are added into the mix our planet's currently known oil reserves are actually three times larger than that predicted by "peak oil," suggesting that alleged doomsday is decades off _ Asia's skyrocketing requirements notwithstanding.
The logic here is market-derived: persistently higher prices drive new exploration and boost R&D in both energy extraction and the technology of transportation. That means we'll go deeper and farther to access new reserves while extracting better yields from both existing and future fields while upgrading our automotive fleet.
We didn't leave the Stone Age because we ran out of stones, and we won't leave the Oil Age because we've run out of oil. Instead, humanity moves progressively "down" the carbon chain (wood to coal to oil to gas to nukes and hydrogen) for the sheer reason that each step we take brings us higher efficiency and less pollution _ a total win-win.
Recent Comments