Viguerie's Numbers

CPAC folks were asked what they would do it McCain wins the nomination:

           299      29.9%  “strongly support McCain”

            279      27.9%  “I will vote for McCain, but do not expect to work or contribute”

             35       3.5%  “I will vote for the Democratic nominee”

             90       9.0%  “I will vote for a conservative third party candidate if one is on

                                     the ballot in my state”

             40       4.0%  “I will not vote”

            257      25.7%  “I am undecided at this time—I need to see if Senator McCain

                                     reaches out to conservatives in a serious and meaningful way”

 

            “From these results, it is clear that Senator McCain has a challenge in gaining the conservative support he needs in order to win the general election,” says David Franke of ConservativeHQ.com. “Only 3 in 10 conservative activists strongly support him. Even if you add in the people who will limit their activity to voting for him, and all of the undecided conservatives (not likely), he will have only 83.5% of the conservative vote. Historically, the Republican presidential candidate needs more than 80% of the conservative vote in order to win. The poll results show he can possibly reach that level of conservative support, but it will be dauntingly hard.”

So he's got better than half the CPAC vote, but perhaps not their money, nor their spirit. Will 50% be enough? I think so and I'm happy for the clarity in difference. I am pleased that McCain is not sucking up but clarifying his positions in order for respectful disagreement. Again I note that McCain-Kennedy was subjected to the will of the people through Congress and that is the thing that made McCain change his tune - not the love-hate relationship with think tanks and activist groups.