I'm writing this at 10pm Pacific on the day of the Ohio and Texas primaries and it reflects something I've been thinking about all day but haven't had time to write, which is this: If Hillary wins the nomination, the Democrats definitely lose. That is because there is no way that those people who have been pumped up by Obama are going to switch. AP has declared (for what it's worth) a Texas win for Clinton after she has clearly clinched Ohio. And so this is perhaps, the beginning of the end.
The meme which has gained strength on Right Radio is that there is a vast left-wing conspiracy to give the brother a break, but that the Obama honeymoon is ripe for a smackdown. This real-estate scandal is just the kind of thing that counts in dirty politics. When Clinton exploits it, it will not backfire. Obama supporters will be livid. Blue Dogs will chuckle but Republicans will have the last laugh.
The analogy I've been thinking about all day is Obama as Mike Tyson. In the beginning, everybody thought he was unbeatable. In the end, people saw him truly outclassed and then wondered how they ever came to think he was all that. I don't think Obama self-destructs like Tyson, but in the end the result will be the same. A bunch of 'if only' apologetics.
I'm not saying that Obama is destined to lose, I'm saying how that scenario goes down.
What is obvious is that Obama is MoveOn's choice. Which means that he's a lefty lefty. How it is that people think that lefty policy is going to unite the country demonstrates the kind of wishful thinking often associated with populist candidates. The fact is that Obama policy-wise is Barbara Boxer in a black man suit. One scandal will be sufficient to erase the magic, and then it comes down to politics as usual. How well does Obama fare when he has to operate with the level of skepticism accorded ordinary politicians? Starting Wednesday, we will begin to know.
The free lunch line is closed.
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