This past week marks the hardening of the lines drawn across Barack Obama's future prospects for leading the country as president. I can't speak for those who support him, but for those who don't the negatives are piling high - to insuperable levels. The prospects for McCain are rising as he has taken the benefit of the independents' doubt away from Obama.
Obama, who was forced into a litmus test on race, misjudged his audience and prepared a dissertation instead. He was put in a position to have to explain to all of America where he is on race and America wasn't happy. That is to say the greater fraction of America, the fraction that would make the most difference for him, dismissed his explanation. It is apparent to me that there are folks who take race and racism seriously as a complex subject and there are those who treat the whole area as a fire swamp, never to be navigated and generally to be avoided. While Obama might be content to wrestle with the racist rodents of unusual size, the Americans whose support he needed most were not impressed. And now faced by his skeptical audience Obama gave the distinct impression that he was quite capable of living happily in that fire swamp forever undaunted although not unscarred by its beasts. That's no way for a prince to behave, and so much of America has been revulsed. That is the Republican half and the Hillary quarter. Poor pitiful farm boy.
Above and beyond that, among the chatting classes I have encountered over the long weekend, there is a second arrow in Obama's chest, and that is he simply cannot fight and win. Obama, whether or not he sees himself as a soothing balm for the bareknuckle politics has backed himself into that peace-loving corner. And so the common wisdom says that Hillary's machine is going to rip him to shreds, if he doesn't self-destruct first. Obama would self-destruct by proving he can knuckle up like an old school Chicago pol, proving once and for all the lie that perhaps always was - that he is a new kind of politician above mendacious means, expedient tactics and selfish strategies. In the end, really the most charitable thing that could be said about Obama is that he is too naive and green. Perhaps he should run for the head of Health and Human Services. He's too nice to be president.
And so in a short period of time, Obama has been knocked to the canvas and all of his supporters have drawn the ire and disrespect of the rest of the electorate. Not only is Obama considered a fool, but Obama voters are thought to be driving with one wheel in the sand.
I can't smell concession quite yet. But I see the smoke in the air.
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