It has been perhaps a year since I was regularly checking up on Thomas PM Barnett, who is at the moment, my leading geopolitical theorist. And I do recall his enthusiasm for Obama from way back then. This week, I've decided to turn him back on. And this is the first thing I see:
McCain grew up in a very ideological age, where politics and political systems ruled all. Now we live in a era defined by global economics and rising powers who look like us economically but not politically--unless you want to go back to our own "non-party" or "one-party" days as an infant republic (a mere five decades or so ...).
As such, we live in an age defined by questions of economic liberty, with politics taking a back seat in many cultures. Globalization is challenging and changing identities today, not political struggles.
To deal with all that, I think we limit ourselves deeply when we say our friends are only fellow democracies. Right now, I think the U.S. should emphasize fellow market economies and focus on pushing that evolution over politics. We are in a period of consolidation of our liberal global trade order--a time of frontier integration.
And I think both McCain and Clinton see the world too much in political terms to understand that underlying reality.
Moreover, when I think of the profound changes ahead (we add a billion people in 12 years and almost 2X that amount join the global middle class), I think we need to speak more to that emerging global middle and their needs than to our own unreasonable demands that everyone approximate our mature, multiparty democracy pronto.
And that's why I like Obama most.
Now there was a time when I sidled up to Obama geopolitically and on the strength of Barnett's enthusiasm as someone who would straighten up and fly right if and when he got into the Oval Office. There has been little in his behavior to suggest otherwise since then. The fact is that the Right is invested in disbelieving him, and with Wright, they have their little race card. But I have always been interested to see how Obama and McCain debate foreign policy. Despite the fact that Samantha Power is out on her can for dubious reasons, Barnett remains convinced that Obama still has the team best equipped for dealing with the world as it is.
This is very significant from where I stand, but it implies that a completely brand new start may be what's best, and I don't see how that is the case. Exactly what needs doing and undoing in Barnett's view is what I need to research before I get all in McCain's Koolaid.
As I have written, I have some interest in seeing the Obama phenomenon stick a pin in the hot air of black middle class discontent, especially of the Wright variety. But I have never lost confidence that on some things Obama is too smart to let satisfying radicals direct more than his rhetoric. The biggest issue in the world, is the world, so let's see how he stacks up with Barnett in mind. I recognize that Barnett is also selling his mojo, and there's no doubt that he speaks to my generation very well. He could have a profound influence on Obama, and that would be worth a great deal. But evidently, it doesn't look like he's made the inroads yet.
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