I cannot wait until the Obama-McCain debates.
Last night I watched Charlie Rose and other folks discussing the prospects for Obama, and their views on what has transpired thus far. There were no real surprises except that I realized for the first time in quite a while what kinds of talent the mainstream media still possesses. If you hang out in the 'sphere too long, you can get a kind of bizarre tunnelvision that tends to mislead you into believing that other folks who run at lower bandwidth are mislead. In fact, there is a lot of low bandwidth expertise and sense out there that doesn't bother doing mashups and scobelizing 300 RSS feeds in some corner of the long tail. The advantage is that there are organizations that are mature and well-run that can put the right person in the right place. In short, Time Magazine can't be that stupid. It is an example of a newly adopted Cobb's Rule #16: It is never a good idea to underestimate the intelligence of people in power.
There is probably a good corrollary to that which is never to underestimate the capacities of people who acquire power quickly. Obama is an opportunist of gargantuan proportions, and he beat Hillary Clinton. He didn't beat her down, he bested her in what? 28 out of 54. Moreover, he leveraged the little guy and beat the Clinton machine. It's not unprecedented but it is extraordinary. The bastard pulled it off.
What is useful at this moment is to understand that he has done for himself an extraordianry thing, which is to set himself up for life. There is very little else, aside from Rezko, that is going to drag him down. When he has the Democratic Party, which is now inevitable, he will have the kind of power that stays around from here on out. He is Presidential. So all he now has to do is not make enormous mistakes, which is to say of the sort which cost people their lives. Short of that, he has free reign to make rather revolutionary steps, few of which we haven't seen before, but are likely to be handled in a way which is entirely his.
What Obama needs right about now are experts, and I think they will begin acreting around him as the days go forward into the summer and fall. He will get what McCain may not which is a coterie of young and ambitious people with big ideas and short intsitutional fetters. Star formation in Obama's gravitational field is about to begin, and that which was wispy gas not long ago will now begin to accumulate mass.
At this moment in time, it may or may not become easy. It's too early to tell. McCain has done the honorable thing all along and has been the last to throw the kind of mud that began in March with Wright. That dead end is self-evident, but not to a large number of Republicans. They seem to have a tough time recognizing that Obama has an almost Reaganesque teflon coating. He is a superbly skilled politician whom I predict will shed Rezko like Reagan shedded Meese. In a nation that is at war, Obama's worst gaffes mean didly. The American people can do the body count math and in the short attention span theatre that is the mass media, surviving Wright means Obama can survive all mistakes candidates can make. In short, the only thing that can kill Obama now is the popular vote. And guess what, he's the black guy. He's the underdog. And only wonky, principled, professorial curmudgeons like me are not impressed by that, and we don't rule the public.
Sixteen years ago, I wanted desparately to have someone in the White House from my generation. It simply didn't matter what Bush or Dole were saying - they were just too freakin' old. I can't tell at this moment whom I trust less, Obama in 08 or Clinton in 92. But it didn't quite matter to me because I was on about the new world I was in the middle of creating as a professional. (I liked Harkin and then Brown, BTW) I cannot see, therefore, how anyone in their 30s who is educated and successful could possibly resist the opportunity Obama presents in the face of McCain's Old Guard. McCain doesn't even have to be 'McSame', he's already 'Old McDonald' and we already know about his farm. Obama can easily swim to the Left and paint Bush as mad, as well as point to all Republicans as 'out of touch'. He has got the young vote and it will take a rather large presidential scandal for that segment to wake up. Of course by then it will be too late.
I also know that Obama will have no trouble doubling back on his tracks. Inheriting an institutionally incompetent CIA and an essentially weakend State Department as well as a scorned DHS puts him on just about equal footing with any visionary the Right may or may not have. As soon as Al Qaeda strikes here at home, he'll have all the support he needs. He is, I bet, perfectly willing to entertain the idea that 'they can't shoot our soldiers if we bring them home', and when the battle comes to American shores, he still gets to be a war hero president. The 'world' will little note nor long remember how many AQ kills if Iraq falls, so long as Obama keeps the body count of the next domestic attack to fewer than the WTC. That is the course calculation he can bank on. He can always blame Rumsfeld, Gates, Tenet - none of them were heroes, just Bush flunkies in ObamaWorld. All Obama has to do is retire Petraeus and Odierno quietly and the world is his. With McCain as THE Republican hawk, that may be an easier task than it seems. It won't take much for Obama to send millions of patriots scurrying back to Perot Wings of Eagles World. In other words, all Obama has to be militarily is a naive reactionary. Considering how he has manipulated everyone with his 'Gee, that person who was just exposed was not the friend I thought he was', refrain, I see he'll have no problem using it against whomever, whenever in geopolitics.
On the other hand, who has ever stood up to Putin?
Domestically, the rich get richer slower and the poor get poorer slower. What's the difference? The difference will be in wonkery. But I think the wonkery will only take place if McCain is president. The smug satisfaction that a Democratic Hill would have would b a slow nightmare unfolding. I'm most interested to see how much more of a press holiday Obama gets over the next few months to see what effect he might actually have on domestic tranquility. He's going to have to start filling in the blanks.
Now this Bob Barr character can only be the GOP's Nader. It was bad enough with Ron Paul. Anyway, I think it might not be too late for a Libertarian party. If Obama were really about change, he'd be a third party candidate - of course he's too smart to be that idealistic, and will fit snugly into the Center Left in no time flat. We'll all float on OK. Well, except for us principled wonks, who will continue to lay him plain.
On the positive side, I want to give Obama a big high five for bringing the Clintons to their knees. If he picks Richardson for his VP or Chief of Staff, I'd even give him a hug.
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