Wow. You could have knocked me over with a feather. Let's get into it.
The first thing I thought was, OK it's just a rumor. I was driving home this morning from my latest NPR radio show that needed me to be there at 6:30am. The bottom line was this. If Obama hadn't done what he had done, which is pick Biden and come across totally moderate last night, Palin would have made a lot less sense that she does today.
Everybody on the Right loves Palin. She has no negatives, really, except the obvious which is that she is a woman - answer to Obama as minority. But let me go back to the other things I was thinking.
Last night I was thinking Ridge, just like I said, without realizing that he was pro-choice. So I went through the mental exercise of excusing that nit that went something like this. Tom Ridge may be pro-choice but he is not the VP of abortion, he works for the President and nobody, but nobody is going to invert the McCain ticket. Even with Romney, the strongest possible pick, it will clearly be John McCain in the driver's seat. When McCain said he was fit and ready to work 18 hour days for four years, he wasn't joking. So nobody should think otherwise.
This morning, the Spousal Unit, in a rare moment of head nodding said as she read the NYT headline on Palin's selection, and I quote "Smart. Very smart."
But instead of sit over here and cheerlead, I'm going to give you the full thing as I see it, because suddenly this has become a much more interesting race. First to Obama last night and before...
The one thing that Obama has accomplished, which I had some doubts he might do, is to bury the Clinton machine. By all outward appearances, the Democratic party is now consolidated around a ticket that walks and talks like a reasonably moderate duck. I have a continuing doubt that the back office is gelling, and I think the great thing that Biden gives Obama is the ability to wrangle Congressional Dems to his aid. I think Biden will be calling favors that he uniquely can do and that way gives Obama his own man to now handle the declining power of the Clintons. It's not just the 'gravitas' thing, it's the inside fixer thing. Obama could not get that without compromise from Hillary. As it stands, she was still talking about her loss.
See, Obama has been a surprise to his party. Admittedly, he's not cut from the cloth. He made the point himself - and thus it's not all about him. You have to do that when you're not the man. The coach of a football team can say it's not all about me, but not Brett Favre. It is all about the QB. But that's not Obama's forte or style. He needs Biden as his regent, for about two years, which is about how long it took Washington to deal with the twin tornadoes from Arkansas. Obama was Edwards (and lucky for the party it was Obama and not Edwards), the man just to the right of Kucinich, who deprived both men of the black vote they would have gotten. But nobody thought he would beat Clinton and when you look at the facts of the matter, they are still stunning.
These are the states that Obama lost to Hillary Clinton, and will still have a hard time winning in a general election against John McCain.
California, Florida, New York, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Indiana, Tennessee, Oklahoma. He split the vote in Connecticut, Texas, Missouri, Alabama. And this 'post-racial' candidate lost American Samoa and Puerto Rico.
So here is a man with a hard road ahead but who has very successfully created an environment where he can be seen as a moderate change agent. This was Obama's finest hour. In my view he has successfuly moderated his image and finally put all of his ducks in line. I think he has demonstrated that he can translate Obama mania into real power within his party. He didn't and he won't make Hillary Clinton shut up about herself, but he has destroyed her momentum. The script worked. Even Al Gore still couldn't shut up about himself eight years later, but he too now is Kerry. Obama is the man and he's got Biden to prove it. (And Biden's mother).
But Obama made some mistakes - omissions that leave a lot of questions unanswered, and to my mind makes clear that his team is nowhere near ready to put any rhetoric out there. The number one issue Obama failed to speak about last night was how on earth he was going to balance the Federal budget or fight the deficit. The number two issue Obama failed to speak about last night was immigration. The number three issue Obama failed to speak about was Congress' role in the problems that face America. The final big issue he overlooked was to have any soundbite that would characterize his foreign policy. Sure it pays for Democrats to see the world as a creation of the Bushies, but Democrats weren't the only people in the world watching Denver last night. Obama comes across as seeking national unity, a reasonable goal for someone determined, if not desparate, to show that he can lead.
Now it's time to talk about McCain and Palin. Because what makes sense to me is how McCain's choice of Palin stacks up against what Obama has to deal with considering his current lack of consolidation of Democratic power.
What is Palin? Palin is an outsider in an outlaw state. The state that wants to drill for oil over the objection of Washington based environmental lobbies. Palin is a working mother of five. Five! Palin is pro-life who gave birth to a Downs Syndrome child by choice. Palin is a cost-cutting reformer who spurns the perks of office. Palin plays hardball on immigration. Palin's oldest son is heading to Iraq.
What does this say about John McCain? It says that when he comes to the Washington agenda, his VP in the Congress is going to take no excuses for fiscal conservatism. McCain always had the upper hand when talking about bi-partisan leadership on legislation, now he has upped the ante. Will Palin be as effective as Biden? Nope. But what's Biden's approval rating? What's Pelosi's?
Palin's following has been out there during the primaries, and they are very enthusiastic. Every time I've seen her, I've nodded. She's a straight shooter, really. But I don't think anybody honestly believed that McCain would take such a chance. The very fact of the surprise is energizing.
Today is a very big day in American politics, and suddenly a lot more interesting to all of us.
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