You know what the question is. The answer is no.
My answer has always been "no and it doesn't really matter". But quite frankly, it does matter. And I'll tell you exactly why. If you ask me today who I'd rather have running the country between Palin and Rudy Giuliani, I'd pick Rudy. If you ask me who I'd rather have running the country between Palin and Thompson, or Romney or Tom Ridge, Palin would lose. If Palin were at the top of the ticket, in a contest between her and Obama, I'd pick Obama. But she's not.
I've got an itch in my head, and every time I hear 'Vice President' I think, 'leader of the Senate', the tiebreak vote. I don't think of Dick Cheney and all of the extra things he did. I think of the characters from '24' and 'The West Wing', party flacks and scheming rivals. I think of Vice President along the same lines as Majority Whip. The VP goes to the funerals of foreign dignitaries and rollouts of new weapon systems demonstrations. The VP debates the VP candidates during the campaign. But most of all, I think of the Vice President of the US, not as a second string quarterback, but as the President's man on the Hill, the liaison to Congress. When I really think about it, that's what I mean. So most of the time, I don't really worry about the likes of Dan Quayle in office. I mean exactly how did we suffer with Danny Boy? Everybody knows Palin's stronger than Quayle.
But, that's not the answer to the first question. Who would I rather have running the country? I'd rather have somebody who can do both, well. And I don't believe that Sarah Palin can do both well. She's not the second string quarterback. She's something else entirely.
I am satisfied that Sarah Palin has done exactly what McCain needed as far as the GOP is concerned. And I really love the fact that her nomination puts double emphasis on fiscal reform and fighting corruption. She's got maverick written all over her. She is a phenomenon to match Obama and she is the right breath of fresh air for American electoral politics. In short, as a candidate, she has perfection about her. She has thrown the opposition into fits, derailed their momentum, and exposed their prejudices. She has done so being second banana, which is exactly the right place to do it.
But.
She's not bringing anything to Washington in the same way GWBush brought nothing to Washington. By that I mean, when she comes as an outsider, all she can do is rip the Congress one way or another, rather than steer it from the inside like those who know the pace and flow of the Hill. That means she will be abrasive and will be stalled by legislative tricks, and the consequence of that is that McCain's agenda will have a tough time. The good news is that strategically, given Palin's direct, no-nonsense attitude for the country, rather than as an ideological partisan, she can take all of that public and invigorate a reform of Congress we haven't seen since Gingrich. That is a brilliant strategy and it is what McCain is trying to do. Bravo for him. It's a mixed blessing that could backfire in a time of crisis.
This week, we have crisis.
Crisis serves to remind us that when people run around with their hair on fire, they go to the biggest, strongest, bravest, smartest people they can find and they yell 'save me!'. And when they lack confidence in those in charge, they despair and grumble and backbite. Sarah Palin cannot lead the Democrats in crisis, so therefore she cannot very well run America in crisis. Now, Joe Biden can't lead Republicans in crisis, but to be honest, he'd fake it better. Obama could very well be Bushlike and rise to the occasion, but I have my doubts. McCain is McCain, a man built for crisis. In fact, the more conflict he sees, the better he gets. So we have two extremes on the right and two mediocrities on the left, in either case we have to pray for good weather.
We cannot wish ourselves into a better world. We have to deal with the one we have. You cannot be a real conservative and not expect chaos. Palin is not a natural conservative choice, she is a natural popular choice for social conservatives whose capabilities as a maverick says something important about a serious change in the domestic agenda. I like all that, but I go in with reservations. They are the same kind of what-if reservations I have in general. I quite frankly don't know who else McCain is going to pick or what exactly his domestic agenda is going to be. I'm all for bold action, but what's the action John? I'm all for a feisty, wildly popular partisan, but what's the agenda John? There's too much hope in this season's campaigns, and that makes this conservative uncomfortable. But I'll tell you my hope.
My hope is that McCain wins, because without a McCain win, the Republicans are sunk. With a McCain win, the Republicans moderate from Rovian tricks and work for the center and for the country. Country First is exactly what I want. If Republicans don't get the chance to do Country First, it will be 'Energize the Base' and we move more crazily to Right wing populism, and that even scares me. Sarah Palin is the smartest popular choice the GOP could have made; it could have been Ron Paul who is truly a crackpot. It could have been Huckabee, the Jimmy Carter of the Right.
If Obama wins, the Republicans have a better chance of going ape and reverting to extreme DeLay style arm-twisting in Congress. Why? Because a Democrat Executive and Legislative agenda under anybody but (ironically) Hillary Clinton will become a mad social scientist's dream. In other words, we go from Red and Blue to Black and White. The partisans in this country go berzerk under an Obama administration.
The risk of all hell breaking loose from external, uncontrollable factors that put Palin in charge of more than she can handle are slim but real and they really matter. But the risk of all domestic hell breaking loose from a retrenching GOP fighting as a minority against a Democratic full press on Washington is a certainty if Obama wins. And the reality of Obama's waffling and inexperience is as real as the redneck sensibilities of Sarah Palin.
Crisis brings clarity, and both sides give me reasons to freak out and head for shelter. But I'll take the possible risk with McCain over the certain risk with Obama.
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