I have a subscription to The Economist. I need to remember to renew my subscription, and perhaps buy one as well for the WSJ. It's the very least I can do if I'm going to continue as an occasional commentator on NPR. But I often don't have time to read. This week I'm catching up and they've dropped a bomb on me.
AS THE financial crisis pushes the economy back to the top of voters’ concerns, Barack Obama is starting to open up a clear lead over John McCain in the opinion polls. But among those who study economics for a living, Mr Obama’s lead is much more commanding. A survey of academic economists by The Economist finds the majority—at times by overwhelming margins—believe Mr Obama has the superior economic plan, a firmer grasp of economics and will appoint better economic advisers.
Our survey is not, by any means, a scientific poll of all economists. We e-mailed a questionnaire to 683 research associates, all we could track down, of the National Bureau of Economic Research, America’s premier association of applied academic economists, though the NBER itself played no role in the survey. A total of 142 responded, of whom 46% identified themselves as Democrats, 10% as Republicans and 44% as neither. This skewed party breakdown may reflect academia’s Democratic tilt, or possibly Democrats’ greater propensity to respond. Still, even if we exclude respondents with a party identification, Mr Obama retains a strong edge—though the McCain campaign should be buoyed by the fact that 530 economists have signed a statement endorsing his plans.
You can tell in reading the article, or perhaps it was the voice in my head, that it sounds very grudging to give these props, but they are what they are.
If there could possibly be any reason why I might have comfort under an Obama administration, this would be it. I have not put together any reasonable assessment of the specific economic plans outlined so far by either candidate, but I have taken rhetorical clues from the last debate. Neither one has been particularly bracing. I take McCain at his word that he will reduce government spending and that he has the willingness to push hard for spending cuts, but Democrat rhetoric about the deficit ain't hay. I hear it's around 2Trillion, which means debt service is now a significant part of the Federal budget.
I'm particularly disgusted with the popular conversations about the campaign, approaching the moment I changed the blog earlier this year. Although I admire his restraint, his record of bipartisanship and his lack of priority on social evangelism in that particularly annoying Christian Conservative way, McCain has been boring me from day one. His announcement of Palin has laid to rest any question that he would unify the party, but it has obscured his ability to present his vision to me or to anyone. Now that he's going negative, as he should, what exactly is so great about McCain is something even McCain can't seem to explain. Nevertheless, I trust the man.
Obama on the other hand is about as oily as they get. His ability to communicate and master all media is more like a virus than a press release. I have to wonder if he hasn't bamboozled the economists as well. I think he is disingenuous on the order of Bill Clinton and that he is so busy working his miracle that nobody knows what he's really all about. He has no seasoning and his geopolitics are worthy of ridicule.
Before Obama slip slided to the Right, I had some confidence that if he won, he would not have the power to change much. Now he knows he would have to deliver to the nation and has turned his rhetoric. I don't really know if it makes me trust him more or less. I would like to think (wishful thinking) that Obama is actually maturing politically, but I cannot make that leap of faith. He is not a whole candidate to me and I cannot buy the whole package. That is because the man is not talking to me, and never really has, and quite frankly I do not admire the way he talks to the people - he sounds good, but I have no reason to believe he will do good.
If in fact, the Obama economic plan is superior to McCains, and specifically if it can be demonstrated that it makes more sense in the long run, this is a way I could see clear to giving him support.
Here is my reservation. I think that Obama is not above sacking Petraeus out of spite. It would be unforgivable.
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