Did I ever like this guy? Hmm. Did I ever trust this guy? Hmm. Hard to say. Whatever the case, his profile is rising like Ahmed Chalabi's did in Iraq. The difference is that neocons don't like El Baradei for a number of reasons. I think it's simply fair to say that he's anti-American and not out of the necessity that over 80% of Egyptians are anti-American.
It turns out that El Baradei was the dude who helped John Kerry make hay over some 400 tons of 'missing' high explosives. You remember that one don't you? How Kerry out of one side of his neck said 'where are all the WMDs?' and out the other side blamed Bush for losing enough C4 to blow up every airliner in the sky and that "the incredible incompetence of this president and this administration has put our troops at risk and put this country at greater risk than we all need."
But that was then. Today, El B is playing coy and pretending that he doesn't want to lead Egypt, when in fact, as one of the most famous Egyptians on the planet, it would be a shoe-in for him to get international support. All he has to do is do a little more anti-American mouthing off, and the stooges in the press will fall in line and give his every mumbling coverage. Me, I've found a new capability of Google which rather demonstrates this sappy lack of diversity - a quote search.
There is a difference, of course, in being able to get the cameras whirring and 'content' generated about you and your profile, and actually pulling strings of power in Egypt or any modern nation. Mubarak has got the aparatus on lock, as much as it is possible to have. This man has ruled Egypt longer than most Americans stay married. There is no way out of that relationship withough a lot of trauma, and only insiders will get to play with the old pushbuttons. El Baradei, with his 'clean hands' is ironically well-suited and ill-prepared for such a leadership role. He will regret stepping into the spotlight and lending his credibility to the operators who will actually be running the show behind the scenes.
And since the Obama Administration doesn't have any problem with the Muslim Brotherhood's participation, then we are likely to see yet another figure similar to The Wanker of Iraq, Moqtada Al Sadr, rise in stature in the power vacuum that will follow Mubarak's departure. Egyptians do not know or understand multiparty democracy any better than Iraqis did. Obama's deplomacy, despite the fact that in general has always been sappy and poor, never had a gnat's chance to assist in true democratic reform for Egypt.
So listen for El Baradei to use his last opportunities in life to bloviate about Egyptian independence from corrupt American influences, and then sink into bitter academic regret about the beasts he will have unleashed. The romantic images of the Egyptian masses in solidarity is a Western fantasy bouyed by the likes of NPR, the gritty reality will be more like Iraq under Bremer. You heard it here first.
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