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Opportunities:
- The Islamists are taking center stage in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. This may drive the non-Islamists to finally unite and any missteps by the Islamists could play to the advantage of their adversaries.
- The foiled Iranian-sponsored terror plot provides an opportunity for Iran’s enemies to pressure the international community to enact further sanctions. The plot’s failure can also be used to weaken the Iranian regime by undermining confidence in the ability of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
- The uprising in Syria is causing severe tensions between the Assad regime, Iran, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey. The Iranian regime has criticized the Assad regime, while covertly backing it. The Iranian and Syrian regimes are angry at Hamas’ lack of support for Assad and Turkey’s embrace of Syrian military defectors. At the same time, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood lashed out at the Turkish Prime Minister for calling on Egypt to remain secular.
Risks:
- The obvious risk that comes with the Arab Spring is the ascent of the Islamist parties. This undoubtedly results in foreign policies more hostile to the West, especially towards Israel. In addition, their early political victories put them in a position to shape conditions to their favor, making it more difficult for the non-Islamists to compete against them.
- The first round of elections in Egypt will be held on November 28. The better-than-expected performance of Ennahda in Tunisia indicates that the Muslim Brotherhood’s Justice and Development Party will likewise exceed expectations. The Brotherhood has generally been projected to win 20 to 30 percent of the vote.
- The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, Libya and come next summer, Afghanistan, will cause governments in the region to reconsider the balance of power. The Iraqi government could grow closer to Syria and Iran. Libya will be increasingly influenced by Qatar, which will be leading the Friends of Libya coalition. The Afghan government might turn to Pakistan and Iran in the hopes of attaining stability, though its strengthening relationship with India will offer it an alternative partner.
- Israel’s deal with Hamas to have Gilad Shalit released in exchange for approximately 1,000 terrorists gives the Gaza-based group a major political victory and new momentum. This deal will be seen across the Arab world as vindication of Hamas’ methods and already, a Saudi cleric has put out a bounty on Israeli soldiers in order to encourage further kidnappings.
- There is a risk of social unrest in Saudi Arabia as Prince Nayef’s power grows. If the liberal elements of society feel he is moving the country backwards, it could lead to confrontation. Any instability in Saudi Arabia will lead to an increase in oil prices. Iran and Al-Qaeda will also view such unrest as an opportunity.
Dependencies:
- The political calculations of the Islamist parties. The Islamists will be tempted to use their new position of power to push aggressive anti-Western policies and to institute domestic laws in line with Sharia-based governance. However, they must also be careful not to overplay their hand and jeopardize their popular support.
- Iran’s calculation of whether to protect Bashar Assad or to embrace the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran is in a complicated position. Its alliance with Hamas and potential alliances with governments in the Arab world under Muslim Brotherhood influence are in jeopardy over the uprising in Syria.
- Prince Nayef’s domestic political strategy. He is an ally of the Wahhabists but it is unknown which path he will take Saudi Arabia down. If he maintains the status quo, he will anger and please both sides at the same time. If he moves against the liberals, such as by trying to stamp out Western influences, he could cause a backlash. If he tries to appease the liberals by introducing reforms, he may encourage them while offending the Wahhabists.
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