On Upside and Matters of Flight

Last night, I had one eye on the 2005 NBA draft and another on a frosted mug of Sierra Nevada Pale Ale (!!!!) Between sips and dips, I heard the announcers refer to "upside" and potential as desirable traits in players at this stage of their careers. This approach has presented some questions which I would like to share with the group...

At this stage, should productivity trump potential?? Or is the shadow cast by the likes of Garnett, Bryant and McGrady too long for GMs to change partners mid-dance?

Have GMs already changed partners since many college players were selected ahead of high schoolers and the core body of international players?

What areas of work/play serve as sufficient proxies for prior performance? In other words, is playing in the ACC a sufficient litmus test for judging serviceable to great players - or not given the careers of Chris Washburn, Chris Corchiani, Rodney Monroe (Fire and Ice, if ya remember) (NC STATE), Len Bias, Adrian Branch, Herman Veal (Maryland) and the slew of busters from DUKE? Or is proximity to UNC sufficient to warrant a look?

Are there still players who don't have the long, lean super athletic body-type that get their game off in the league? Can a round fella still rock the rafters by playing the game below the rim ala Moses Malone??

Do elite players who dominate above-the-rim perform better than those who dominate below-the-rim? Which players are able to do both? Is this distinction worth making? For example, Magic and Bird were below the rim dominators. Shaq is arguably a below-the-rim dominant player because of his use of lower-body strength to impose his will and establish position...contrast with the likes of Jordan, Wilkins, Ben Wallace, etc. If there is no difference, where are the below-the-rim guys on draft boards and in the stat columns?

How will any of this be impacted by the 19 year-old age limit?

Comments

[ShoeDawg]

I think the tide is changing with regards to the Prep players. Out of the nine that were in the '05 draft, only 3 went in the first round. I think GM's are finally getting their basketball minds back. And youa are SO right about the DUKE busters. Outside of Grant Hill, they've never produced a topnotch ball player. There are a couple of cats that can ball - Christen Leatner (sp), Elton Brand and Corey Maggette (sp).

I think the age limit is wrong but it will get some High School kids thinking about getting their game in order and making sure they are academically ready for the high profile colleges. Although I'm sure most colleges have a way of getting around that.