would love to hear a bit more about the teeth of the coalition between blacks and latinos - 'cause i don't know cali, but i know these coalitions have been fractured in places like new york and chicago (forget about miami)...it will be interesting to see the extent to which something viable can be sustained between these two groups - as it stands the galvanizing of the latino vote under the new mayor may auger better for this party than for a coalition between blacks and latinos -- in fact, it may be that this new mayor is better served by capitalizing on the disaffection with the former mayor in certain quarters, while doling out patronage principally to his latino base...it will be interesting to see how the team is built and the reorganization conducted...
dopamine aside, the competition between culture groups over scarce resources remains fierce, and the uneven preparation of the black community during post-electoral carving sessions is legendary...there is value to the "other side" in divide-and-conquer...that's all it ever is - but the fact remains that black folk have never had a permanent alliance with another ethnic group - and it is hard to distinguish between these other groups based on "degrees of assimilation of white supremacist ideology." it could be argued that the closest we came to a permanent alliance was in Florida/Georgia (Seminole country) in the late 1700's, early 1800's. we are left with reactions to cop firings and fading memories of hook-ups in the 60's...
The voter survey, supervised by Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 3,191 voters as they left precincts across the city. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2 percentage points overall, and more for smaller voter groups.
Among the survey's more striking findings was its confirmation of Hahn's loss of support among African Americans and Valley voters, the once-sturdy coalition that drove his 2001 triumph over Villaraigosa.
The mayor, whose father, Kenneth, built an African American political base for the family decades ago as a county supervisor, won 80% of the black vote four years ago. But on Tuesday, he captured just 52% of those voters.
Among blacks who supported Villaraigosa, nearly two out of five cited the ouster of Police Chief Bernard C. Parks, an African American, as a main reason for their vote. Also, 59% of the blacks who voted for Parks in the first round of mayoral voting in March shifted to Villaraigosa in the runoff. Parks had endorsed and actively campaigned for Villaraigosa.
Yet the survey found sharp distinctions within the black community. Black voters 45 and older — those most apt to fondly remember the legacy of Hahn's father — strongly favored the mayor over Villaraigosa. Younger blacks leaned heavily toward the challenger.
Also, black men favored Villaraigosa, while black women strongly supported Hahn.
Villaraigosa, who won 48% of the black vote, had campaigned aggressively for African American support. A large group of black leaders who backed Hahn in 2001 — among them former basketball star Magic Johnson, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) and various church pastors — abandoned the mayor this year and vouched for Villaraigosa. An ebullient Johnson helped introduce the winning candidate at his victory party.
"The really interesting and intriguing question is what happens to relations between Latinos and blacks now," Sonenshein said. "Because by no means is this the sign of a full-scale coalition. But it is certainly a bridgehead in what could have been a purely competitive relationship."
In the Valley, as among blacks, Hahn suffered a sharp reversal of fortune. In 2001, the Valley favored Hahn over Villaraigosa, 55% to 45%. The election Tuesday flipped that precisely: The Valley opted for Villaraigosa over Hahn by the same 10-point margin.
A key problem for Hahn, the poll confirmed, was his 2002 campaign to kill the proposed secession of the Valley from the rest of Los Angeles. Nearly three in 10 of the Valley voters who supported Villaraigosa cited secession as a main reason for their vote.